2015 CMA Awards Predictions: Who Are the Favorites for Country Glory?

It’s the biggest week of the year for country music, with the 49th Annual Country Music Association Awards airing tonight on ABC hosted by Brad Paisley andCarrie Underwood. An all-industry voted show, the list of award winners sometimes takes a slightly different turn than the ACM Awards or the CMT Music Awards.

And, to make picking winners for this year’s show even tougher, there isn’t one clear consensus winner for the whole show. Don’t look for one artist to come away with five or six trophies. It will likely be a little more balanced than that. Who will win -- and who will be snubbed? Here’s a few thoughts on six of the biggest categories of the night…

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Album of The Year: 
Old Boots, New Dirt, Jason Aldean
Pageant Material, Kacey Musgraves
Pain Killer, Little Big Town The Big Revival, Kenny Chesney Traveller, Chris Stapleton

As close of a race in this category as it’s been in years. Aldean and Chesney will likely split the commercially oriented votes, leaving this a three-album race between Little Big Town and two of the albums that will likely finish high in many of the year-end polls in just a few weeks. We'll give a slight edge to Stapleton in terms of quality -- and it would be a slight one -- but Pageant Material has earned every inch of positive ink given to it.

WHO WILL WIN: Kacey Musgraves. But, Stapleton’s disc was just as lyrically potent – it just had less radio support than Musgraves, who herself hasn’t gotten very much.

Single Record of the Year:
“American Kids,” Kenny Chesney
“Girl Crush,” Little Big Town
“I Don’t Dance,” Lee Brice
“Take Your Time,” Sam Hunt
“Talladega,” Eric Church

Most of the categories are pretty difficult to predict. However, this might be the easiest one of the night. Yes, there was a little bit of controversy (or was there?) concerning “Girl Crush,” but Karen Fairchild delivered a lead vocal that is going to stand through the ages on the track. And, that’s all you need to know!

WHO WILL WIN: Little Big Town. Simply said. 

New Artist of the Year: 
Kelsea Ballerini
Maddie & Tae
Sam Hunt
Thomas Rhett
Chris Stapleton

Again, Stapleton is so damn good – and he’s by far the class of this group in talent. But, without a true radio hit, it seems unlikely that he can pull off an upset here. Maddie & Tae and Ballerini have made huge inroads for female artists, and Thomas Rhett has increased his visibility greatly. But, Sam Hunt has just had one of those years where everything he touches turns to gold. And, 800,000 in record sales -- in an era where fans aren’t buying music -- doesn't lie.

WHO WILL WIN: Sam Hunt. By the definition of category, nobody has made more career progress during the eligibility year. 

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Female Vocalist of the Year: 
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves
Carrie Underwood Lee Ann Womack

OK, let’s do a little deductive reasoning. Womack -- while releasing a masterpiece in The Way I’m Livin’ -- and Musgraves are incredible female vocalists, but haven’t had the airplay success to truly contend in this one. Ballerini has -- and may be the next superstar of the format, but she’s not going to win it in the first year. So, just like it has for a while, it comes down to Underwood and the five-time reigning winner, Lambert. Carrie might have a chance of gaining this one back -- but five in a row is a tough streak to break. Still, it’s got to happen at some point.

WHO WILL WIN: Carrie Underwood. This could very well go either way, but the singer really turned some heads on “Something In The Water,” and her consistency might very well be rewarded. 

Male Vocalist of The Year:
Dierks Bentley
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Chris Stapleton

Shelton has won this category every year since 2010, but it seems like his time in the winner’s spotlight might be up. The question is who fills that void? This one is going to be pretty interesting. Bentley or Church, both of whom have been having hits for close to a decade, could walk away with this one. 

WHO WILL WIN: Dierks Bentley. And, he’s done it the old-fashioned way, he’s earned it fair and square.

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Entertainer of the Year: 
Garth Brooks
Luke Bryan
Kenny Chesney
Eric Church
Miranda Lambert

This one looks a lot tougher than it is. Brooks and Chesney will cancel each other out with the veteran vote (though it feels strange to refer to either of them in that way), and Church is on his way. Lambert deserves a fair shot at this award in the future -- but Luke Bryan’s time continues to be now.

WHO WILL WIN: Luke Bryan, for the repeat. He’s modeled his career after acts like Chesney, building it slow and steady. Go to a live show of his, and you’ll understand why there is simply no contest this year. He’s heads and shoulders above his fellow nominees in this category.

The 49th Annual Country Music Association Awards will air Wednesday (Nov. 4) on ABC Television at 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT. .

billboard.com